The CARAMAL study could not assess the effectiveness of rectal artesunate in treating suspected severe malaria.

CARAMAL was a large observational study which recorded mortality in children with suspected severe malaria before and after the roll-out of rectal artesunate in Nigeria, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The results of CARAMAL have had a huge impact on public health policy leading to a World Health Organization moratorium on the roll-out of rectal artesunate. The conclusion reported in the abstract uses strong causal language, stating that "pre-referral RAS [rectal artesunate suppositories] had no beneficial effect on child survival". We argue that this causal interpretation of the study results is not justified. Data from the CARAMAL study inform chiefly on the strengths and weaknesses of referral systems in these three countries and do not inform reliably as to the beneficial effect of providing access to a known life-saving treatment.

Definitions matter: Heterogeneity of COVID-19 disease severity criteria and incomplete reporting compromise meta-analysis

Therapeutic efficacy in COVID-19 is dependent upon disease severity (treatment effect heterogeneity). Unfortunately, definitions of severity vary widely. This compromises the meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and the therapeutic guidelines derived from them. The World Health Organisation ‘living' guidelines for the treatment of COVID-19 are based on a network meta-analysis (NMA) of published RCTs. We reviewed the 81 studies included in the WHO COVID-19 living NMA and compared their severity classifications with the severity classifications employed by the international COVID-NMA initiative. The two were concordant in only 35% (24/68) of trials. Of the RCTs evaluated, 69% (55/77) were considered by the WHO group to include patients with a range of severities (12 mild-moderate;3 mild-severe;18 mild-critical;5 moderate-severe;8 moderate-critical;10 severe-critical), but the distribution of disease severities within these groups usually could not be determined, and data on the duration of illness and/or oxygen saturation values were often missing. Where severity classifications were clear there was substantial overlap in mortality across trials in different severity strata. This imprecision in severity assessment compromises the validity of some therapeutic recommendations;notably extrapolation of "lack of therapeutic benefit” shown in hospitalised severely ill patients on respiratory support to ambulant mildly ill patients is not warranted. Both harmonised unambiguous definitions of severity and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analyses are needed to guide and improve therapeutic recommendations in COVID-19. Achieving this goal will require improved coordination of the main stakeholders developing treatment guidelines and medicine regulatory agencies. Open science, including prompt data sharing, should become the standard to allow IPD meta-analyses.

Global governance for pandemic prevention and the wildlife trade.

Although ideas about preventive actions for pandemics have been advanced during the COVID-19 crisis, there has been little consideration for how they can be operationalised through governance structures within the context of the wildlife trade for human consumption. To date, pandemic governance has mostly focused on outbreak surveillance, containment, and response rather than on avoiding zoonotic spillovers in the first place. However, given the acceleration of globalisation, a paradigm shift towards prevention of zoonotic spillovers is warranted as containment of outbreaks becomes unfeasible. Here, we consider the current institutional landscape for pandemic prevention in light of ongoing negotiations of a so-called pandemic treaty and how prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption could be incorporated. We argue that such an institutional arrangement should be explicit about zoonotic spillover prevention and focus on improving coordination across four policy domains, namely public health, biodiversity conservation, food security, and trade. We posit that this pandemic treaty should include four interacting goals in relation to prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption: risk understanding, risk assessment, risk reduction, and enabling funding. Despite the need to keep political attention on addressing the current pandemic, society cannot afford to miss the opportunity of the current crisis to encourage institution building for preventing future pandemics.

Longitudinal Lung Function Assessment of Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 Using 1H and 129Xe Lung MRI.

BACKGROUND: Microvascular abnormalities and impaired gas transfer have been observed in patients with COVID-19. The progression of pulmonary changes in these patients remains unclear. RESEARCH QUESTION: Do patients hospitalized with COVID-19 without evidence of architectural distortion on structural imaging exhibit longitudinal improvements in lung function measured by using 1H and 129Xe MRI between 6 and 52 weeks following hospitalization? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia underwent a pulmonary 1H and 129Xe MRI protocol at 6, 12, 25, and 51 weeks following hospital admission in a prospective cohort study between November 2020 and February 2022. The imaging protocol was as follows: 1H ultra-short echo time, contrast-enhanced lung perfusion, 129Xe ventilation, 129Xe diffusion-weighted, and 129Xe spectroscopic imaging of gas exchange. RESULTS: Nine patients were recruited (age 57 ± 14 [median ± interquartile range] years; six of nine patients were male). Patients underwent MRI at 6 (n = 9), 12 (n = 9), 25 (n = 6), and 51 (n = 8) weeks following hospital admission. Patients with signs of interstitial lung damage were excluded. At 6 weeks, patients exhibited impaired 129Xe gas transfer (RBC to membrane fraction), but lung microstructure was not increased (apparent diffusion coefficient and mean acinar airway dimensions). Minor ventilation abnormalities present in four patients were largely resolved in the 6- to 25-week period. At 12 weeks, all patients with lung perfusion data (n = 6) showed an increase in both pulmonary blood volume and flow compared with 6 weeks, although this was not statistically significant. At 12 weeks, significant improvements in 129Xe gas transfer were observed compared with 6-week examinations; however, 129Xe gas transfer remained abnormally low at weeks 12, 25, and 51. INTERPRETATION: 129Xe gas transfer was impaired up to 1 year following hospitalization in patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia, without evidence of architectural distortion on structural imaging, whereas lung ventilation was normal at 52 weeks.

Pharmacometrics of high-dose ivermectin in early COVID-19 from an open label, randomized, controlled adaptive platform trial (PLATCOV).

Background: There is no generally accepted methodology for in vivo assessment of antiviral activity in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Ivermectin has been recommended widely as a treatment of COVID-19, but whether it has clinically significant antiviral activity in vivo is uncertain. Methods: In a multicentre open label, randomized, controlled adaptive platform trial, adult patients with early symptomatic COVID-19 were randomized to one of six treatment arms including high-dose oral ivermectin (600 µg/kg daily for 7 days), the monoclonal antibodies casirivimab and imdevimab (600 mg/600 mg), and no study drug. The primary outcome was the comparison of viral clearance rates in the modified intention-to-treat population. This was derived from daily log10 viral densities in standardized duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates. This ongoing trial is registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ (NCT05041907). Results: Randomization to the ivermectin arm was stopped after enrolling 205 patients into all arms, as the prespecified futility threshold was reached. Following ivermectin, the mean estimated rate of SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was 9.1% slower (95% confidence interval [CI] -27.2% to +11.8%; n=45) than in the no drug arm (n=41), whereas in a preliminary analysis of the casirivimab/imdevimab arm it was 52.3% faster (95% CI +7.0% to +115.1%; n=10 (Delta variant) vs. n=41). Conclusions: High-dose ivermectin did not have measurable antiviral activity in early symptomatic COVID-19. Pharmacometric evaluation of viral clearance rate from frequent serial oropharyngeal qPCR viral density estimates is a highly efficient and well-tolerated method of assessing SARS-CoV-2 antiviral therapeutics in vitro. Funding: 'Finding treatments for COVID-19: A phase 2 multi-centre adaptive platform trial to assess antiviral pharmacodynamics in early symptomatic COVID-19 (PLAT-COV)' is supported by the Wellcome Trust Grant ref: 223195/Z/21/Z through the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator. Clinical trial number: NCT05041907.

Definitions matter: Heterogeneity of COVID-19 disease severity criteria and incomplete reporting compromise meta-analysis.

Therapeutic efficacy in COVID-19 is dependent upon disease severity (treatment effect heterogeneity). Unfortunately, definitions of severity vary widely. This compromises the meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and the therapeutic guidelines derived from them. The World Health Organisation 'living' guidelines for the treatment of COVID-19 are based on a network meta-analysis (NMA) of published RCTs. We reviewed the 81 studies included in the WHO COVID-19 living NMA and compared their severity classifications with the severity classifications employed by the international COVID-NMA initiative. The two were concordant in only 35% (24/68) of trials. Of the RCTs evaluated, 69% (55/77) were considered by the WHO group to include patients with a range of severities (12 mild-moderate; 3 mild-severe; 18 mild-critical; 5 moderate-severe; 8 moderate-critical; 10 severe-critical), but the distribution of disease severities within these groups usually could not be determined, and data on the duration of illness and/or oxygen saturation values were often missing. Where severity classifications were clear there was substantial overlap in mortality across trials in different severity strata. This imprecision in severity assessment compromises the validity of some therapeutic recommendations; notably extrapolation of "lack of therapeutic benefit" shown in hospitalised severely ill patients on respiratory support to ambulant mildly ill patients is not warranted. Both harmonised unambiguous definitions of severity and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analyses are needed to guide and improve therapeutic recommendations in COVID-19. Achieving this goal will require improved coordination of the main stakeholders developing treatment guidelines and medicine regulatory agencies. Open science, including prompt data sharing, should become the standard to allow IPD meta-analyses.

Characterizing SARS-CoV-2 Viral Clearance Kinetics to Improve the Design of Antiviral Pharmacometric Studies.

A consensus methodology for the pharmacometric assessment of candidate SARS-CoV-2 antiviral drugs would be useful for comparing trial results and improving trial design. The time to viral clearance, assessed by serial qPCR of nasopharyngeal swab samples, has been the most widely reported measure of virological response in clinical trials, but it has not been compared formally with other metrics, notably model-based estimates of the rate of viral clearance. We analyzed prospectively gathered viral clearance profiles from 280 infection episodes in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. We fitted different phenomenological pharmacodynamic models (single exponential decay, bi-exponential, penalized splines) and found that the clearance rate, estimated from a mixed effects single exponential decay model, is a robust pharmacodynamic summary of viral clearance. The rate of viral clearance, estimated from viral densities during the first week following peak viral load, provides increased statistical power (reduced type 2 error) compared with time to clearance. Antiviral effects approximately equivalent to those with currently used and recommended SARS-CoV-2 antiviral treatments, notably nirmatrelvir and molnupiravir, can be detected from randomized trials with sample sizes of only 35 to 65 patients per arm. We recommend that pharmacometric antiviral assessments should be conducted in early COVID-19 illness with serial qPCR samples taken over 1 week.

Pharmacometric and Electrocardiographic Evaluation of Chloroquine and Azithromycin in Healthy Volunteers.

Chloroquine and azithromycin were developed in combination for the preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, and more recently were proposed as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment options. Billions of doses of chloroquine have been administered worldwide over the past 70 years but concerns regarding cardiotoxicity, notably the risk of torsades de pointes (TdP), remain. This investigation aimed to characterize the pharmacokinetics and electrocardiographic effects of chloroquine and azithromycin observed in a large previously conducted healthy volunteer study. Healthy adult volunteers (n = 119) were randomized into 5 arms: placebo, chloroquine alone (600 mg base), or chloroquine with either 500 mg, 1,000 mg, or 1,500 mg of azithromycin all given daily for 3 days. Chloroquine and azithromycin levels, measured using liquid-chromatography tandem mass spectrometry, and electrocardiograph intervals were recorded at frequent intervals. Time-matched changes in the PR, QRS, and heart rate-corrected JT, and QT intervals were calculated and the relationship with plasma concentrations was evaluated using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Chloroquine and azithromycin pharmacokinetics were described satisfactorily by two- and three-compartment distribution models, respectively. No drug-drug interaction between chloroquine and azithromycin was observed. Chloroquine resulted in concentration-dependent prolongation of the PR, QRS, JTc and QTc intervals with a minimal additional effect of azithromycin. QRS widening contributed ~ 28% of the observed QT prolongation. Chloroquine causes significant concentration-dependent delays in both ventricular depolarization and repolarization. Co-administration of azithromycin did not significantly increase these effects. The arrhythmogenic risk of TdP associated with chloroquine may have been substantially overestimated in studies which did not separate electrocardiograph QRS and JT prolongation.

High-Volume Image-Guided Injections in Achilles and Patellar Tendinopathy in a Young Active Military Population: A Double-Blind Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: Chronic Achilles and patellar tendinopathy are a significant burden in physically active populations. High-volume image-guided injection (HVIGI) proposes to strip away associated neovascularity, disrupt painful nerve ingrowth, and facilitate rehabilitation. Purpose: To investigate the efficacy of HVIGI with and without steroid relative to placebo. Study Design: Randomized controlled trial; Level of evidence, 1. Methods: A total of 62 participants were recruited between May 25, 2016, and March 5, 2020. Participants were men aged 18 to 55 years with Achilles or patellar tendinopathy of at least 6-month chronicity that had not improved with nonoperative management (including physical therapy and shockwave therapy), with ultrasound evidence of neovascularization, tendon thickening, and echogenic changes. They were assigned to the following groups: control (3 mL of subcutaneous 0.5% bupivacaine), HVIGI (10 mL of 0.5% bupivacaine and 30 mL of normal saline, ultrasound-guided between tendon and underlying fat pad), or HVIGI with steroid (HVIGIwSteroid; 0.25 mL of 100 mg/mL hydrocortisone). Clinicians and assessors were blinded. All participants were supervised through a pain-guided progressive loading program for 6 months postinjection. The main outcome measures were the Victoria Institute of Sport Assessments (VISA) for Achilles and patellar tendinopathy and the visual analog scale (VAS) for pain at 6 months postinjection. Results: The VISA score improved by a mean of 22.8 points (95% CI, 10.4-35.3 points; effect size [ES], 1.51) in the control group (n = 21), 18.6 points (95% CI, 9.1-28.0 points; ES, 1.31) in the HVIGI group (n = 21), and 18.5 points (95% CI, 3.4-33.6 points; ES, 0.88) in the HVIGIwSteroid group (n = 20). VAS pain improved by a mean of 15 points (interquartile range [IQR], -38.75, 8 points; ES, 0.39) in controls, 13 points (IQR,-34.0, 3.75 points; ES, 0.47) in the HVIGI group, and 27 points (IQR,-38.0, -1.0 points; ES, 0.54) in the HVIGIwSteroid group. The main effects were significant for time (P < .001) but not group (P ≥ .48), with no group × time interaction (P = .71). One participant was lost to follow-up from each group, multiple imputation was used for missing data points. No adverse events occurred. Conclusion: Study findings did not demonstrate superiority of HVIGI over control injection. Registration: EU Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT: 2015-003587-36).

The Impact of Demographic, Socio-Economic and Geographic Factors on Mortality Risk among People Living with Dementia in England (2002-2016).

Increasing numbers of people living with dementia (PLWD), and a pressured health and social care system, will exacerbate inequalities in mortality for PLWD. There is a dearth of research examining multiple factors in mortality risk among PLWD, including application of large administrative datasets to investigate these issues. This study explored variation mortality risk variation among people diagnosed with dementia between 2002-2016, based on: age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, geography and general practice (GP) contacts. Data were derived from electronic health records from a cohort of Clinical Practice Research Datalink GP patients in England (n = 142,340). Cox proportional hazards regression modelled mortality risk separately for people with early- and later- onset dementia. Few social inequalities were observed in early-onset dementia; men had greater risk of mortality. For early- and later-onset, higher rates of GP observations-and for later-onset only dementia medications-are associated with increased mortality risk. Social inequalities were evident in later-onset dementia. Accounting for other explanatory factors, Black and Mixed/Other ethnicity groups had lower mortality risk, more deprived areas had greater mortality risk, and higher mortality was observed in North East, South Central and South West GP regions. This study provides novel evidence of the extent of mortality risk inequalities among PLWD. Variance in mortality risk was observed by social, demographic and geographic factors, and frequency of GP contact. Findings illustrate need for greater person-centred care discussions, prioritising tackling inequalities among PLWD. Future research should explore more outcomes for PLWD, and more explanatory factors of health outcomes.

Planning Considerations and Lessons Learned From a COVID-19 Mass Community Vaccination Center.

The emergency use authorization for multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines came at a pivotal time for the USA. In January 2021, the country exceeded 400,000 deaths from COVID-19. The USA aimed to quickly distribute and administer the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, with bright prospects for an additional emergency use authorization for Johnson and Johnson/Janssen's single-dose vaccine on the horizon. Part of the National Strategy for COVID-19 Response and Pandemic Preparedness was to "mount a safe, effective, comprehensive vaccination campaign" so the administration set a goal to have 100 million fully vaccinated citizens after the first 100 days in office. In order to fuel the rapid administration of vaccines, the Department of Health and Human Services was tasked to stand up new, federally supported Community Vaccination Centers across the country. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was the lead agency entrusted to expedite financial assistance, allocate federal equipment and supplies, and deploy federal personnel to states, tribes, territories, and other eligible applicants for vaccination efforts. Early in the process of staffing sites, FEMA recognized the need to bolster the efforts with active duty military personnel and asked for manning assistance from the Department of Defense. As a result, 222 U.S. Air Force personnel were tasked with supporting the FEMA COVID-19 vaccination operations at NRG stadium, Houston, Texas. This reflection aims to cover the lessons learned and provide meaningful insight for future mass medical operations.

Type I Hypersensitivity in Ferrets Following Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Inoculum: Lessons Learned.

This case report discusses Type I hypersensitivity in ferrets following exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) inoculum, observed during a study investigating the efficacy of candidate COVID-19 vaccines. Following a comprehensive internal root-cause investigation, it was hypothesized that prior prime-boost immunization of ferrets with a commercial canine C3 vaccine to protect against the canine distemper virus had resulted in primary immune response to fetal bovine serum (FBS) in the C3 preparation. Upon intranasal exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus cultured in medium containing FBS, an allergic airway response occurred in 6 out of 56 of the ferrets. The 6 impacted ferrets were randomly dispersed across study groups, including different COVID-19 vaccine candidates, routes of vaccine candidate administration, and controls (placebo). The root-cause investigation and subsequent analysis determined that the allergic reaction was unrelated to the COVID-19 vaccine candidates under evaluation. Histological assessment suggested that the allergic response was characterized by eosinophilic airway disease; increased serum immunoglobulin levels reactive to FBS further suggested this response was caused by immune priming to FBS present in the C3 vaccine. This was further supported by in vivo studies demonstrating ferrets administered diluted FBS also presented clinical signs consistent with a hyperallergic response, while clinical signs were absent in ferrets that received a serum-free SARS-CoV-2 inoculum. It is therefore recommended that vaccine studies in higher order animals should consider the impact of welfare vaccination and use serum-free inoculum whenever possible.

Health Inequities in the Care Pathways for People Living with Young- and Late-Onset Dementia: From Pre-COVID-19 to Early Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how people with dementia and/or their family carers access health and social care services after a diagnosis. The aim of this study was to explore potential inequalities in care pathways for people with young-onset and late on-set dementia (YOD/LOD), including their family carers, with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurring throughout the course of the study and enabling a comparison between pre-pandemic and COVID-19 times. METHODS: People with YOD and LOD with their family carers were recruited via local support groups in the North West Coast region of England. Semi-structured interviews explored the experiences of people with YOD and LOD and family carers on their access to both health and social care services and community-based services. Transcripts were coded by two researchers and analysed using thematic analysis. Fifteen interviews were conducted with seven people with YOD or LOD and 14 family carers between January and March 2020. Some interviews were conducted only with the person with dementia, because they did not have a family carer, and others were conducted only with the family carer, because the person with dementia was in the severe stages of the condition. RESULTS: Four themes emerged from the interviews: (1) Getting the ball rolling: the process of diagnosis; (2) Balancing the support needs of people with dementia and carers; (3) Barriers to accessing support; and (4) Facilitators to accessing support. Inequities existed for both YOD and LOD, with emerging evidence of unequal experiences in accessing care at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. DISCUSSION: People with YOD and LOD and their carers require better support in accessing services after a diagnosis. Greater understanding of the pathways through which inequalities materialise are needed, especially those that might have been disrupted or exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Effect of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been proposed as treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) on the basis of in vitro activity and data from uncontrolled studies and small, randomized trials. METHODS: In this randomized, controlled, open-label platform trial comparing a range of possible treatments with usual care in patients hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned 1561 patients to receive hydroxychloroquine and 3155 to receive usual care. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. RESULTS: The enrollment of patients in the hydroxychloroquine group was closed on June 5, 2020, after an interim analysis determined that there was a lack of efficacy. Death within 28 days occurred in 421 patients (27.0%) in the hydroxychloroquine group and in 790 (25.0%) in the usual-care group (rate ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.23; P = 0.15). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients. The results suggest that patients in the hydroxychloroquine group were less likely to be discharged from the hospital alive within 28 days than those in the usual-care group (59.6% vs. 62.9%; rate ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98). Among the patients who were not undergoing mechanical ventilation at baseline, those in the hydroxychloroquine group had a higher frequency of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (30.7% vs. 26.9%; risk ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.27). There was a small numerical excess of cardiac deaths (0.4 percentage points) but no difference in the incidence of new major cardiac arrhythmia among the patients who received hydroxychloroquine. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients hospitalized with Covid-19, those who received hydroxychloroquine did not have a lower incidence of death at 28 days than those who received usual care. (Funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ISRCTN number, ISRCTN50189673; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936.).

Fatal COVID-19 infection in a patient with long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency: A case report.

Long-chain fatty-acyl CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (LCHADD) is an inborn error of long chain fatty acid oxidation with various features including hypoketotic hypoglycemia, recurrent rhabdomyolysis, pigmentary retinopathy, peripheral neuropathy, cardiomyopathy, and arrhythmias. Various stresses trigger metabolic decompensation. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic caused by the RNA virus SARS-CoV-2 with diverse presentations ranging from respiratory symptoms to myocarditis. We report a case of a patient with LCHADD who initially presented with typical metabolic decompensation symptoms including nausea, vomiting, and rhabdomyolysis in addition to mild cough, and was found to have COVID-19. She developed acute respiratory failure and refractory hypotension from severe cardiomyopathy which progressed to multiple organ failure and death. Our case illustrates the need for close monitoring of cardiac function in patients with a long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorder.

COVID-19 prevention and treatment: A critical analysis of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine clinical pharmacology.

Nicholas White and coauthors discuss chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine pharmacology in the context of possible treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Concentration-dependent mortality of chloroquine in overdose.

Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are used extensively in malaria and rheumatological conditions, and now in COVID-19 prevention and treatment. Although generally safe they are potentially lethal in overdose. In-vitro data suggest that high concentrations and thus high doses are needed for COVID-19 infections, but as yet there is no convincing evidence of clinical efficacy. Bayesian regression models were fitted to survival outcomes and electrocardiograph QRS durations from 302 prospectively studied French patients who had taken intentional chloroquine overdoses, of whom 33 died (11%), and 16 healthy volunteers who took 620 mg base chloroquine single doses. Whole blood concentrations of 13.5 µmol/L (95% credible interval 10.1-17.7) were associated with 1% mortality. Prolongation of ventricular depolarization is concentration-dependent with a QRS duration >150 msec independently highly predictive of mortality in chloroquine self-poisoning. Pharmacokinetic modeling predicts that most high dose regimens trialled in COVID-19 are unlikely to cause serious cardiovascular toxicity.

Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are closely-related drugs used for the treatment of malaria and rheumatological conditions, such as lupus. Laboratory tests have indicated that these drugs could also be used against the virus that causes COVID-19. Given the urgent need, these drugs have been fast-tracked into large-scale clinical trials, bypassing the usual stages that would provide estimates for suitable dosage. The dosage is a critical factor in a clinical trial: too low and the drug will not have an effect, too high and the side effects may counteract any potential benefits. Laboratory tests suggest that higher doses of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine are needed for treating COVID-19 compared to malaria or lupus. However, there are concerns about the high doses used in some trials, as the drugs can have lethal side effects. Indeed, chloroquine has been used extensively in suicide attempts, particularly in France. To address these concerns, Watson et al. set out to determine the highest dosage of chloroquine (and thus of hydroxychloroquine, approximately) that does not cause unacceptable side effects. First, data was analysed regarding the concentration of chloroquine in the blood of 302 patients who had intentionally overdosed on the drug, since this concentration is tightly correlated with their risk of death. Watson et al. used a statistical model to calculate the maximal chloroquine concentration in a person's blood associated with a one per cent risk of death. This is taken to be the threshold above which any potential benefit of chloroquine treatment would be outweighed by the possibility of lethal toxicity. Watson et al. also estimated the relationship between chloroquine concentrations and changes in electrocardiogram patterns, which record the electrical activity of the heart. This makes it possible to determine whether a high dose of chloroquine has led to dangerous levels in the blood. Using a mathematical model of how chloroquine is metabolised, Watson et al. predicted that most of the trials that tested chloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 did not reach the calculated threshold concentration. An exception was the CloroCovid-19 trial in Brazil, which was stopped early because people in the higher dosage group suffered more heart problems and died in greater numbers than those in the lower dosage group. Two large randomised trials, RECOVERY and SOLIDARITY, have shown no benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19, changing clinical practice worldwide. Both of these trials used high doses resulting in higher hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine concentrations than normally observed in the treatment of malaria or rheumatological conditions. The results from Watson et al demonstrate that the lack of benefit seen in these two large clinical trials is not due to the drug dosage being too high.